Japan $30 Aid Pledge, China Debt Waiver, US Tour to Africa—Doesn't This Feel Like the Scramble for Africa 2.0?
Only Smarter, Subtler and More Sophisticated
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Welcome to the Not an Afterthought Newsletter. We lead the conversation on how to accelerate Africa’s socio-economic development with a particular emphasis on the role technology will play in fueling economic growth that will make Africa not an afterthought!
There is a Kiswahili proverb that goes, “fahali wawili wakipigana nyasi ndio huumia.” It roughly translates to "When two bulls fight, it is the grass that is trampled on/suffers."
In the recently concluded Tokyo International Conference on African Development (TICAD 8), Japan pledged $30bn over the next three years to help fuel development in Africa.
A week before TICAD, China waived the debt of 17 African countries. The announcement was made at the Forum for China Africa Cooperation.
In early August, US Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken, toured Africa. His goal? To counter Russian influence in Africa.
Two weeks before Anthony Blinken landed in South Africa, Russia had already made its move.
In late July, Russian Foreign Minister—Sergey Lavrov—visited Ethiopia, Egypt, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Uganda to counter Western narratives in Africa.
Lest you forget, the French president, Emmanuel Macron, was also in Africa recently. He toured Benin, Cameroon and Guinea-Bissau.
I can bet you 100 pounds the UK is not far behind. After all, they do have a Minister for Africa—Vicky Ford.
Think about that for a second.
My high school Kiswahili teacher had an interesting catchphrase. He would list all the salient facts, then say, "sisemi kitu (I haven't said anything)." He meant that the facts painted such a clear picture; there was no need to state it.
What picture do you think these actions paint?
Who do you think is the grass that will be trampled on and suffer the harshest consequences as the two bulls, well technically, several bulls, continue fighting for supremacy amongst themselves?
It happened once, you know!
The Scramble for Africa 1.0
In the 1880s, European countries were fighting their weird dominance and supremacy battles, and wouldn't you know it, the scramble for Africa happened.
In 1871, Unified Germany and Italy were created. That left no land in Europe for expansion. As a result, Germany, Great Britain and France found themselves in an intricate political dance, each trying to maintain dominance and emerge superior.
They met in their secret rooms, pondered the situation, 'brilliant' minds prevailed, and like Archimedes, it dawned on them, 'Eureka! Eureka!' It was so obvious—just grab land in Africa.
So, in 1884, all those powerful European countries met in Berlin and set down the ground rules for partitioning Africa. Navigation on the Congo and Niger rivers was free for all, but to declare a protectorate over a region, the European colonizer had to show effective occupancy and develop a 'sphere of influence." And thus, Africa was colonized!
The west (or is it the west plus China and Russia) is undergoing a time of change. Several countries are locked in a supremacy and dominance battle. Once again, Africa is the battleground.
In 2021, PLO made a controversial yet sobering statement, that Africa would be recolonized in the next 25 years.
Controversial it might have been, but was he right?
Scramble for Africa 2.0
It will not be an in-your-face colonization. No, these bulls are way too sophisticated for that. It will be a subtler recolonization wrapped in loans, debt waivers, pretty convincing words, seemingly well-intentioned actions and strong statements.
Did you know that in July, the US State Department said that African countries are
geostrategic players and critical partners on the most pressing issues of our day…"
Words have never been that convincing or pretty, no?
There is a Kikuyu proverb that goes, "Numi huhi." That he who is biting you will also blow on the wound, so you do not realize they are biting you.
While Chinese investors negotiated a seemingly lucrative $6 billion infrastructure-for-minerals deal in DRC, they bit hard by underestimating the value of the Tenke Fungurume cobalt and copper mine to the tune of 7.5 billion dollars.
While the US allowed East African countries to export over 6000 products duty-free to the United States under the AGOA deal, it bit hard by insisting that the East African Community cannot ban the import of second-hand clothes.
The EAC accounts for approximately 13% of the global imports of second-hand clothes. The industry is worth over $274 million and has significantly decimated the local textile industries. For instance, a couple of decades ago, Kenya had over half a million garment workers. Today, the number is less than 50,000.
The French signed a defense agreement with Mali to help deal with militants in an operation dubbed Operation Barkhane, but they bit hard by interfering with Mali's internal affairs. Reason? They did not want international mining operations to be threatened.
See the pattern of 'numi huhi'?
If it continues, these powerful nations will become bolder and bite off bigger chunks. Still blinded by the 'blowing' African countries will not realize their sovereignty is at stake.
One day, x years from now, Africa will wake up to discover that it is a shell of a continent—a vassal of various western countries, fully indebted to them and incapable of making independent decisions.
It will be a continent fully recolonized without even realizing that the scramble for Africa 2.0 was happening!
Is there hope?
That isn't easy to answer because Africa desperately needs the perks these countries are offering!
When DRC first made the infrastructure-for-minerals deal, it was soon after a 32-year dictatorship that had destroyed the country. The new president was desperate for money for reconstruction and development. Western countries turned him down, and China was the only country willing to accommodate him.
Under the AGOA trade deal, Kenya exports goods worth over $600 million to the United States.
A promise to upskill African citizens is lumped up in the $30 billion aid packet from Japan. At a time when skills are in a lot of demand, that is a mighty offer.
Sure, the bite will eventually come and bite hard, but it is not all bad. It has never been all bad. I dare say it has sometimes been necessary.
But it is not sustainable!
That is the crux of the issue! It is not sustainable and is ultimately detrimental.
Africa needs a more sustainable model where the negatives do not outweigh the positives.
It needs a model where the continent is not so powerless that it has little recourse when powerful countries play their dominance games on its soil.
Check back next week as we explore how Africa can avoid being the battleground for the west's supremacy battles.
If this is your first time here, here are a couple of issues that you might have missed.
Are You Traveling Across East Africa? Get Yourself An Airtel Sim Card
Frequently Asked Questions About The East African Community
Dissecting the East African Community’s Customs Union: How Has it Benefited EAC Citizens?
Building and succeeding in Africa: How Safaricom Did It
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