AfCFTA Friday #3: How the AfCFTA can contribute to climate change efforts in Africa
The inextricable link between the two
Climate change efforts fall under two main categories: mitigation and adaptation.
Climate mitigation is reducing/preventing greenhouse emissions from escaping into the atmosphere. It aims to limit global temperatures to below 2 degrees Celsius, preferably 1.5oC.
Climate adaptation is adjusting to the effects of climate change. It encompasses the unique actions businesses, communities, regions, countries, continents, and organizations take to adjust to climate change.
Think about a Ghanaian moving to Iceland. He/she would have to ditch all the light clothes they wore in Ghana for heavy clothes as a means of ADAPTING to Iceland’s climate.
The two—climate mitigation and adaptation—are critical to Africa because the continent suffers the harshest climate change consequences despite contributing the least to climate change.
That is where the AfCFTA comes in.
Why the African Continental Free Trade Area?
I would argue that in the same way there is no climate justice without gender justice, there is no AfCFTA success without incorporating climate change efforts into the fabric of the agreement.
An environmentally conscious AfCFTA allows Africa to build a low-carbon industrial future from the ground up.
It would be the opposite of how developed countries industrialized—using fossil fuels like coal to power industries. As the demand for fossil fuels rose to sustain industrialization, emissions tripled and quadrupled.
Fossil fuels benefited developed countries, but the non-renewable energy destroyed the environment and made it less sustainable. Data shows that the carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere increased as soon as the industrial revolution kicked off and has been rising since.
Africa is on the verge of massive industrialization fueled by the African Continental Free Trade Area agreement. The Africa Export-Import bank (Afrexim) has stated on record that the AfCFTA will “accelerate the growth of labor-intensive manufacturing industries.”
Data and research agree with Afrexim bank, noting that successfully implementing the AfCFTA will double Africa’s manufacturing sector by 2025 and create more than 14 million jobs.
Now comes the question. How should Africa balance its industrial needs with its environmental obligations?
Scientists will advise against non-renewable energy, stating that any industrial gains derived from the increased use of fossil fuels will be for naught if the continent becomes unsustainable.
African leaders, in contrast, will point out the unfairness of it all. The president of Uganda has already criticized the West for hypocrisy.
For some years, we have been told fossil fuel investment in Africa for Africans is unacceptable. More recently, a moratorium has become legally binding through a multi-Western country agreement. With Europe reinvesting in its own fossil fuel power industry to bring mothballed power plants back online, in a truly perverse twist, we are told that new Western investment in African fossil fuels is possible--but only for oil and gas resources that will be piped and shipped to Europe. This is the purest hypocrisy,"
"We are told that these are only temporary measures needed to mitigate the energy shortages caused by the war in Ukraine. The race to a renewable future will recommence as soon as the conflict ends. In Africa, we believe what we see, not what we hear,"
"We will not allow African progress to be the victim of Europe's failure to meet its climate goals. It is morally bankrupt for Europeans to expect to take Africa's fossil fuels for their energy production but refuse to countenance African use of those same fuels for theirs,"
"We see hundreds of millions of our citizens without electricity access. We see climate-compulsive Western investment in African energy funneled into wind and solar, creating intermittent electricity and not the consistent baseload generation required to power factories or produce employment. We see Europeans with jobs made possible by diverse means of electricity production and Africans with neither, forcing tens of thousands to make life-threatening crossings of the Mediterranean Sea to Europe.
Where does this leave the continent?
President Museveni is not wrong, but neither are the scientists. Somewhere between the two extremes, there has to be a solution for Africa, a sort of balance.
That balance is making climate change adaptation and mitigation core elements of the AfCFTA.
What it means practically
The AfCFTA secretariat should impress upon the member countries the importance of incorporating climate mitigation into their industrial policies.
A good example is governments mandating factories to use a certain percentage of renewable energy to reduce emissions.
The freedom to have renewable and non-renewable energy would eliminate the jitters entrepreneurs have about 100% renewables. That's because they'd be free to switch to fossil energy if renewable energy fails.
Chances are high, however, that renewable energy will not fail.
The idea that renewables are unsuitable for energy-intensive manufacturing is untrue. It takes a little more work (such as investing in a diverse energy portfolio), but it is just as effective.
Google derives 93% of its electricity from renewables, while Microsoft uses 100% renewable energy. To achieve these numbers, these companies have diversified their portfolios. Google uses solar and wind power, while Microsoft uses wind, solar and hydro.
Even Tesla, which runs intensive factories, runs on renewable energy.
African industrial sector will eventually realize that renewable energy is dependable.
Until then, some flexibility will help the continent build a solid foundation for green manufacturing. It will also create a path for factories to migrate fully to renewables as technology evolves.
Member countries should incorporate climate adaptation measures into their AfCFTA awareness programs.
Knowledge is power. If the business community is aware of the climate adaptation measures, they'll happily incorporate them.
Climate adaptation measures can take several forms.
Taking actions to help deal with extreme conditions resulting from climate change, for example, setting up flood defenses or building earthquake-resistant factories.
Exploiting new opportunities revealed by climate change, for example, developing new crops that are more resilient and can easily adapt to new climactic conditions.
Dealing with losses caused by climate change. It can be through climate insurance or finding creative ways to manage the losses.
Well-implemented climate adaptation measures translate to fewer climate change consequences. It will help safeguard industrialization.
Member countries should make green manufacturing the standard going forward
Isn't it interesting that the four most industrialized African countries—South Africa, Egypt, Nigeria and Algeria contribute more than 75% of Africa's emissions?
It shows how quickly emissions can get out of hand if other African countries take the same path to industrialization.
However, if the continent can build a low-carbon manufacturing sector from the ground up, Africa will industrialize and prosper without increasing its carbon footprint.
It would also save Africa millions because the continent wouldn't have to transition from fossils to renewables in the future like the developed countries are currently doing.
Some countries have already taken the onus. Kenya, for instance, aims to achieve 100% renewable energy by 2030.
Speaking at the 36th ordinary session of the AU assembly, president Ruto said that Kenya would introduce a comprehensive green growth initiative promoting green manufacturing, transportation, sustainable agriculture, and eco-friendly urbanization.
Member countries should aim to make Africa the center of renewable energy innovation
The primary sources of renewable energy are:
Solar
Wind energy
Biomass
Geothermal energy
Hydro energy
Tidal energy
These are not the only sources, but they are the most developed. Still, that development is modest compared to the potential.
Take solar energy. The amount of solar energy reaching the earth’s surface in one hour is more than the world’s energy requirement for an entire year. Yet, 80% of global energy still comes from fossil fuels. How is that possible?
There is a gap between what is available and what the world needs!
Consider another statistic from the Renewable 2020 report—by 2024, wind energy will increase by 57%, solar will become cheaper by 35%, hydro will rise by 9%, and geothermal capacity will increase by 28%.
It goes to show the massive economic potential in the renewable energy space.
Member countries can leverage the AfCFTA to venture into the renewable energy space by building industries that will fill the existing gaps, lead renewable energy innovation and manufacture what the world needs.
The economic benefits of such a move would be staggering. Data shows that the global renewable energy market will be worth USD 2.97 trillion by 2030. Who wouldn’t want a slice of that?
Last word
It is unfair, but Africa cannot afford to industrialize as other countries did. As a continent, we can cry and moan about it or turn it into a two-pronged strategy—as an economic opportunity and as a chance to lead the world into the future.
The nature of non-renewable energy sources is that they are exhaustible. It might take 10, 20 or 500 years, but at some point, these sources will not exist anymore.
If Africa takes the onus and runs with renewable energy, it will undoubtedly lead the world into the future. In the process, the continent will transform itself from an afterthought to a global player with a say in global conversations.
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If you missed the other #AfCFTA Friday issues, please feel free to check them out.
AfCFTA Friday #1: What is the AfCFTA and Why Does It Matter?
AfCFTA Friday #2: What are the opportunities contained in the AfCFTA