Unpopular opinion: Somalia shouldn’t join East African Community (EAC)
At least not just yet
I am the biggest proponent of regional integration. I’ve written about it, advocated for it, and incorporated it as a core element of this newsletter—the Not an Afterthought newsletter leads the conversation on how Africans can leverage technology, trade, regional integration and Pan-Africanism to build an Africa that is no longer an afterthought.
Still, it rubbed me the wrong way when during an interview with the East African, to respond to the jitters some East Africans have about Somalia joining the community, Rebecca Miano, Kenya’s Cabinet Secretary EAC, said that the jitters were misplaced.
“The bigger the cake, the more the people will partake.” She explained.
I don’t dispute more can be merrier. The European Union (EU), which added 17 countries between 1997 and 2015, has already proven the benefits of a bigger union.
Neither do I dispute the law of economies of scale—that adding more members to the East African Community (EAC) will give entrepreneurs access to a larger market and lower the cost of production.
I dispute the idea that access to a bigger market is the most important element of economies of scale, and as such, the EAC should keep adding members perpetually.
“If you look at the African Union, the original dream of regional integration is to have a united Africa. Admitting more members in the East African Community is the right thing to do.” -CS Rebecca Miano
That line of thinking presents several issues.
Adding members perpetually would lead to a continental superstate that would fail spectacularly
The EAC has four pillars—Customs Union, Common Market, Monetary Union and Political Federation. With Political Federation, the community envisions a future where the member communities form a superstate with a single political authority.
If the EAC continues to add members, there is a possibility that the entire continent will join and create one huge superstate.
History has proven that this would be a mistake!
When the Pan-Africanist ideology emerged in Africa, its proponents were gung-ho about Africa operating as a single superstate. Kwame Nkrumah even put a clause in Ghana’s first institution that Ghana would surrender its sovereignty to join an African superstate. The result?
Other African leaders and Ghanaians were so against it that Kwame wasn’t even allowed to implement it—he was deposed in a coup.
In East Africa, Mwalimu Julius Nyerere tried to get Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda to unite under a superstate before independence. Again it fell apart, and some of the tensions carried over and led to the breakdown of the EAC in 1977.
Away from history, the sheer size of the continent would make managing it as a single superstate a nightmare. Africa is more than three times the size of the US. Many who believe a superstate is the best path to African unity cite the United States as an example, forgetting the disparity in size.
Another hindrance to a continental superstate is that Africans have developed identities around their countries. Colonialists might have manufactured the borders, but there is no walking back the fact that the shared struggle for independence forged strong national identities that are difficult to erase.
It means something to be Kenya, Tanzanian, Nigerian, Namibian, etc.
All this is to say, adding more members without careful consideration can be a tool for fragmentation and not unity.
It ignores the other vital factors that make a regional bloc work
Data proves that in a typical organization, economies of scale are a function of several factors—increased efficiency, technical upgrades, financial muscle, and access to a larger network.
Yes, access to a larger network is part of it, but the other factors are also crucial. For example, if you increase managerial efficiency, operations run smoother, and the cost of producing each unit reduces.
The same applies to the East African Community. While having a population of three hundred million people or more is great for economies of scale, it is arguably the least important factor.
Take a very obvious example—the EAC Common Market. The protocol aims to guide the free movement of labor, goods, services, people and capital across all EAC partner states.
At its launch 11 years ago, the objective was to increase intra-EAC trade from 15% to over 50%. 11 years later, intra-EAC trade is still at 15%. One would assume that the large EAC population would have encouraged EAC entrepreneurs to use economies of scale to produce and sell their goods to the larger market.
Unfortunately, no. Inefficiencies that hinder intra-EAC trade still exist. They include:
Many non-tariff barriers that limit the movement of goods and people
Lack of standard academic and professional qualifications, which would increase the movement of labor
Adding a new member without first dealing with these inefficiencies makes zero sense. A new partner state adds to the inefficiencies and takes energy and attention away from solving them.
The burden of another insecurity situation is too much for the EAC
Whenever a country joins a regional block, the community inherits the burdens of that country.
When the Democratic Republic of Congo joined the EAC, it was with the understanding that the first order of business was restoring peace in DRC.
That’s why the East African Regional Forces are in the region. As recently as a week ago, the rebels and the forces had a confrontation in Kivu.
Someone may argue, “but Somalia is a neighboring country, and the EAC is involved anyway, with a lot of Kenyan forces involved in the African Union Mission to Somalia (AMISOM).”
That is true, but there is a difference between ‘inheriting’ and ‘supporting’ With support, you can do it from a distance. With inheriting, you have to commit your resources until it is solved. It is why DRC has yet to implement some EAC instruments, such as visa-free movement.
All the EAC resources are tied up with the insecurity situation, and nothing can go forward until there is peace.
Now back to Somalia. 5 out of 10 of the most dangerous countries in the world are in Africa. Somalia is one of them.
If Somalia joins now, by inheriting its burden, the EAC will automatically become one of the deadliest regions. Second, the EAC will be running peace efforts in two, no three, countries—Somalia, DRC, and Ethiopia.
That is an impossible burden.
The region lacks a strong counter-terrorism unit to handle Al Shabab
The first advantage of joining the EAC is the visa-free movement of people. Without solid counter-terrorism measures, visa-free movement will open the region to more Al Shabab attacks.
Kenya knows all too well the devastation the terrorist group can cause. It has lost thousands to the group in the past decade or so.
Also, despite the solid borders and the beefed-up security, Lamu, a town in the coastal part of Kenya, has experienced persistent Al Shabab attacks.
President Ruto noted the same at the beginning of the year and promised to find a lasting solution.
If these frequent attacks have been happening with a closed border, how much more when the borders open?
At the very least, there needs to be a plan that enumerates how to neutralize the Al Shabab threat once and for all before the EAC seriously considers letting Somalia into the EAC.
The EAC is a people-centered community. Why hasn’t the EAC consulted East Africans as well as Somalians?
When the three presidents signed the EAC treaty, they promised to make it a people-centered community to avoid a breakdown similar to the one in 1977.
Why haven’t the EAC citizens been consulted if that is the case? Not just for their opinion but to give ideas on how the integration of another member can work.
The EAC is already undergoing an awareness problem. Many EAC citizens are disconnected from the East African Community because they feel like it operates at a very high level. The more the Secretariat makes decisions without consulting the citizens, the bigger the disconnect.
The current EAC chairman is on record, noting that many EAC citizens do not engage. The EAC Secretary-General has also noted the same.
Including the EAC citizens in these decisions will fuel engagement and deepen integration.
Also, how do Somalians feel about it? Some of them have categorically stated that they are Somalian, not African.
It will be impossible to have an East African Community where one partner state does not consider itself African.
The EAC team went to Somalia to access eligibility. No one knows their findings, but I hope they do not make a final decision without involving the current EAC citizens.
Washington Post did a study to determine what has made the EU so efficient. They discovered that deep integration was the primary reason. Well, deep integration cannot happen without an active role from the people.
Last Word
I am not saying never. I am saying not just yet.
Not until peace in South Sudan is tangible and not tentative.
Not until DRC has achieved lasting peace and fully integrated into the community.
Not until the region has a solid counter-terrorism unit that can handle the threats that will come with opening up that border and making it easier for Al Shabab to cross over into East Africa.
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